TORIES ON COURSE TO LOSE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
Conservative (Tory) MP Charles Walker has said that it is ‘almost impossible’ for the party to win the next election, warning more MPs will stand down than ‘go down to electoral defeat’.
His comments came after the Tories were thrashed in the Chester by-election, suffering their worst defeat in the seat since 1832, with a swing of 13.8% (away) from Tory ...
A 12% swing from the Tories ...would be enough to take (our Over 50s party) ... into power.
Walker, a former vice chair of the Tory backbench 1922 committee who is stepping down, told TimesRadio: “... I suspect, we will lose the next general election."...
..."He also said we should expect quite a lot more Tory MPs deciding to stand down as we get nearer to the general election."...
Source:
WHERE OVER 50s PARTY COULD WIN AGAINST TORIES
List quitting up til 4 December 2022 - It is easier to win against a party, if the sitting MP in the job does not run in a general election
..."Tory HQ has given MPs until the 5 December 2022 to say whether or not they are currently planning to seek another term.
Here’s a full list of Tory MPs who have said that they will not be seeking re-election.
Dehenna Davison, Constituency: Bishop Auckland, Majority: 7,962
William Wragg, Constituency: Hazel Grove, Majority: 4,423 (Greater Manchester that includes Bredbury, Romiley, Hazel Grove, Marple and Offerton)
Nigel Adams, Constituency: Selby and Ainsty, Majority: 20,137
Andrew Percy, Constituency: Brigg and Goole, Majority: 21,941
Chris Skidmore, Constituency: Kingswood, Majority: 11,220 (part of Bristol, south Gloucestershire and Kingswood)
Chloe Smith, Constituency: Norwich North, Majority: 4,738
Mike Penning, Constituency: Hemel Hempstead, Majority: 14,563
Charles Walker, Constituency: Broxbourne, Majority: 19,807
Adam Afriyie, Constituency: Windsor, Majority: 20,079
Crispin Blunt, Constituency: Reigate, Majority: 18,310
Gary Streeter, Constituency: South West Devon, Majority: 21,430.
Sajid Javid, Constituency: Bromsgrove, Majority: 23,106 (former Chancellor)
Source:
https://leftfootforward.org/2022/11/a-full-list-of-the-tory-mps-quitting-before-the-next-election/
Expected losses for the Tories include
environment secretary George Eustice's Cambourne and Redruth seat.
and
Jacob Rees Mogg's North East Somerset seat
is one of the four 'at high risk' seats the Conservatives are currently only set to retain by a narrow margin.
..." has identified a new group of seats where the Tories should be worried: the "Conservative Celtic Fringe".
These are 41 South West seats that have returned a Tory MP since 2015 and voted Leave in 2016.
Any voting area mostly held by Tories over the years in elections
tends to be younger, more graduate-heavy, and more professional.
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Conservative vote share down 8pts in ‘Blue Wall’,
With Tory party potentially losing up to 16 seats.
The first ever poll of the so-called ‘Blue Wall’ finds the Conservatives struggling in their traditional heartland seats.
(Gov UK) polling of these 41 Conservative Celtic Fringe seats shows the Tory vote down significantly.
Con: 38% (-19 from GE2019)
Lab: 24% (+5)
Lib Dem: 22% (+3)
Green: 8% (+4)
Ref UK: 6% (+6)
'Conservative Celtic Fringe' seats are older ... and have a higher proportion of agricultural workers
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On current numbers, the Tories are set to lose 11 seats in the Conservative Celtic Fringe, with 4 more on a knife edge
Con: 30 seats (-11)
Lab: 6 (+6)
Lib Dem: 4 (+4)
Ind: 1 (+1)
Where we could beat Tory, Labour and Lib Dems
Labour would also be picking up both Bournemouth constituencies and the seats of Gloucester, Kingswood, and Swindon South.
The Liberal Democrats would re-take Wells, Chippenham, Taunton Deane, and St Ives.
Source: